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An Introduction to Advanced Basketball Statistics: Understanding Possession Estimation
and the Factors that Control Efficiency in or Friday Press Clippings

02/10/12

An Introduction to Advanced Basketball Statistics: Understanding Possession Estimation
and the Factors that Control Efficiency in or Friday Press Clippings

Friday Press Clippings:
An Introduction to Advanced Basketball Statistics:
Understanding Possession Estimation and the Factors that Control Efficiency

Basketball Statistician's Friday Press Clippings
From Burnt Orange Nation
By Reggieball
Download source here: ' An Introduction to Advanced Basketball Statistics: Understanding Possession Estimation and the Factors that Control Efficiency '
by Reggieball



"... Historically, the way we tend to evaluate basketball teams is to look at per game statistics. For instance, we might look at the Big 12 statistics from last season and conclude Nebraska, who allowed 60.5 points per game, and Texas A&M, who allowed 61.3 points per game, were both better defensively than Texas, who allowed 62.2 points per the game.

The chief problem with this sort of analysis is that it ignores the pace at which these teams play. Texas A&M played at an extremely slow pace last season, averaging 62.2 possessions per game. Nebraska played slightly faster, averaging 63.6 possessions per game.

Of these three schools, Texas played at the fastest tempo, averaging 66.9 possessions per game. Nebraska and Texas A&M were among the slowest-paced teams in all of Division I last year, whereas Texas' pace was pretty close to the Division I median of 66.6 possessions per game. ..."

"... If you are convinced that possessions, and not games, ought to be the appropriate way to normalize basketball statistics, then you are ready for the next step. Team performance on offense and defense should be measured as points per possession.

It is useful to break points per possession up a bit further, in order to isolate various elements of offensive (or defensive) performance. In the coming months I will write about some of the ways in which I like to do this, but for now, we will focus on a fairly simple split. Here is an equation ..."

"... Essentially, true shooting percentage is the points scored per shooting opportunity divided by two. The number is divided for two so that it looks like a shooting percentage. Typically many teams and players will have TS% between about 0.5 and 0.6, so the scale is similar to what it common for more traditional field goal percentages.

The problem with true shooting percentage is semantic -- it isn't actually a percentage. For example, TS% can be greater than 1. It can be as high as 1.5. The 0.5 prefactor seems kind of pointless, other than the effort to make this look like a field goal percentage. ..."

"... Then if we take the difference between Texas' ORB - TO and Arizona's ORB - TO, we get an estimate of the difference in shooting opportunities between each team. By this calculation, Arizona is expected to be +2 in FGA + 0.475 x FTA. They were actually +1.

In this case, the discrepancy comes from the fact that Texas had one extra possession than Arizona did in the first half of the game.

Both teams had the same number of possessions in the second half of the game. Note that sometimes this estimate will be off because it is just an estimate, but in this case we have an assignable cause. ..."

Read more articles in Burnt Orange Nation

To read today's 'Press Clippings' in Spanish,
click this week above on the 'Español' tab or afterwards click here:
' Valoracion de Criterios Estadisticos ' by Matias Barmat.



Friday Video Clippings:
Where is God ?



Where is God ?

An Oscar Nomination Short Film Directed by Bryan Fernando

Two mischievous girls whose cause a lot of trouble to their mother. The mother complaints about this to their parish priest and sends one of the girls to the local priest to get some moral advice. The priest meets the girl and asks her "where is God?" in order to make her understand that God is love. But the girl misunderstands the question in her innocence and thinks that God is missing and she is being suspected for the crime.


To watch today's 'Video Clippings' in Spanish,
click this week above on the 'Español' tab or afterwards click here: 'La dama y la muerte' de Javier Recio Gracia.

'Press and Video Clippings'
is a Series of Notes edited the 2nd. & 4th. Friday of Every Month

To Read ALL the Clippings in this Series, click here: Categories > Contents Online



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